Model shows high chance of oil hitting South Florida

A new computer model shows oil from the massive Gulf of Mexico spill has as high as an 80 percent chance of reaching the Florida Keys and Miami.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released the forecast Friday. It shows a 61 to 80 percent chance of sheen, tar balls or other oil remnants coming within 20 miles of Florida's eastern coast, from the Keys north to the Fort Lauderdale area, by on Aug. 18.

Outside those areas and the Florida Panhandle, which has already seen beaches littered with tar balls, other areas show a low probability of oil. The state's western coast has a 20 percent chance or lower of seeing oil, and parts of southwest Florida have less than a 1 percent chance.

NOAA’s Oil Spill Response

Has Oil from the Deepwater Horizon/BP Oil Spill Reached South Florida Yet?

There have been no confirmed observations of oil from the Deepwater Horizon near South Florida. Monitoring presently consists of daily overflights by trained observers to check for oil near the Loop Current, and vessels searching for tar balls approaching the Florida Keys. If a significant amount of surface oil were to enter the Loop Current and begin to move toward the Florida Straits, responders would be able to see it, predict its movement, notify states and coastal communities, and help guide preparedness, response and cleanup efforts.

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